Consumption of agricultural products in Finland in 1985

Authors

• Lauri Kettunen Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Rukkila, 00001 Helsinki 100

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.71927

Abstract

Forecasts of the per capita consumption of main agricultural products until 1985 are based a) on income elasticities and b) on an assumed growth of real income by 40 per cent in 10 years. In some cases such as meat, butter and margarine the development of the consumption will depend largely on the future price policy and therefore the forecasts can be considered as alternatives which seem possible but which may also turn out to be wrong. Comsumption forecasts for wheat and rye are based on an income elasticity of —0.3. So the consumption of wheat will fall from46.2 kg per capita in 1975 to 40 kg in 1985 and the consumption of rye from 22.0 to 20kg per capita, respectively. Consumption of fluid milk is assumed to fall 10 per cent in 10 years and would be 206 kg per capita in 1985. The consumption of butter will depend on the price policy of butter in relation to margarine. If the ratio of the retail prices of these products remains as constant as it has been for some years, the consumption of butter is likely to be about 10 kg per capita in 1985. The cheese consumption is expected to increase annually by 4 per cent up to 8.5 kg per capita in 1985.The consumption of other dairy products will stay at the present level. The consumption of eggs will, on the other band, increase 20 per cent during the next 10 years. Beef and pork are close substitutes the consumption of which depends largely on the price policy. Since the supply of beef may not increase due to the declining number of dairy cows it is assumed that the retail price of beef will rise faster than that of pork and therefore the demand pressure on meat will shift to pork, the consumption of which expected to increase by 1kg per capita per year so that it will be 35 kg in 1985. The diet of 1985 is checked by calculating its energy, fat and protein content. The results seem to be rather acceptable.