Finnish Yearbook of Population Research

The Depopulation of Ukraine

David Coleman — 2022-06-27

Blessed by its geology but a prisoner of its geography, the inhabitants of Ukraine have suffered repeated destructive depopulation. The population loss in the Ukraine 1914–21 was over five million. The second modern depopulation culminated in 1932 during Stalin’s manmade famine, with estimated total population losses of 4.6 million people. A third depopulation followed as over 7 million Ukrainians lost their lives in the Second World War.

Between the censuses of 1959 and 1970 population of Ukraine recovered briskly. Total fertility remained at about replacement level until the end of the Soviet Union, then declined. A relatively strong recovery of fertility was reversed in 2012, presumably as a consequence of the Russian invasion in Eastern Ukraine, and total fertility dropped to 1.2.

The population in early 2022 was around 37 million. The Ukrainian global diaspora is one of the most widely-distributed populations in the world, with 6.1 million Ukrainians living abroad already in 2020. After Russia’s invasion in February 2022 thousands have died and millions have been forced to flee. The article ends by considering how Ukraine’s demographic situation might evolve in the future.

This issue of the Yearbook was finalised after Russia attacked Ukraine the 24^th of February, 2022. In this invited reflection, professor David Coleman provides an overview of Ukraine’s demographic history and previous challenges. (Editor’s note)

Kirja-arvio

Pekka Kettunen — 2022-06-27

Saukkonen, Pasi: Suomi omaksi kodiksi. Kotouttamispolitiikka ja sen kehittämismahdollisuudet.
(2020)

The regional migration system as a lens for studying migration and development

Mika Raunio — 2022-06-27

The paper revisits the migration-system approach, offering a more nuanced conceptual device for focused study of migration and, especially, region-level development. The paper outlines the main approaches to migration systems and links the conceptual framework to system-based discussion of regional development. The tentative conceptual lens formulated for studying the role of migration in regional development, and vice versa, is the regional migration system, or RMS. This conceptual focusing device is
developed and tentatively tested in the specific case of Finland’s Seinäjoki city-region. The shape of a regional migration system is recognised by means of statistical data, while qualitative data aid in exploring the system drivers, helping explain their shape
and magnitude. Also, the paper discusses the contributions of the multilevel perspective and transition-based approach entailed for applying the RMS concept. The conclusions point to several further applications for the conceptual framework introduced.

Assessing the Accuracy of National Population Projections

Michael Thomas — 2022-06-27

Few producers of official population projections provide regular evaluations of past projection inaccuracies. This paper assesses deviations between the projected and registered total population for Norway (1996–2018), as well as deviations in the age structure, total fertility rate and number of births, period life expectancy at birth and number of deaths, and net international migration. Projected life expectancy was consistently lower than the real development. Few systematic deviations were observed for fertility up to 2009, but thereafter fertility has been consistently overprojected. However, the deviations between projected and realised trends in births and deaths have been relatively small as compared to those for net international migration. The projections produced between 1996–2005 underestimated long-term population growth due primarily to the unforeseen increase in immigration following EU expansion in 2004. More recent projections contain no consistent under- or overprojection of net migration and the deviations for the total population have been moderate.

Expectations, fears and aspirations of parents from Finnish-African families

Mathias Ebot — 2022-06-27

This article analyses expectations, fears, and aspirations of parents from Finnish-African families who raise their children in Finland. Focusing on parents’ interviews narratives, we explore their ideas and expectations concerning their children’s future. As parents in general, they have hopes and responsibilities connected with their children’s future happiness and success. Because of the multiculturalism and multiple layers of difference of their families and of the fathers’ (black men from sub-Saharan Africa) origins and skin colour of the children, they also have special fears in their parenthood. In the analysis orientations regarding happiness, life satisfaction and freedom of children are considered as parental duties of these adults. They want to play an important role in influencing their children’s future. As opposite to their fears, they bring along an idea of their children representing a new cosmopolitan generation who have capabilities to act in a cosmopolitan future and change the society into that direction as well.

Understanding inclusive entrepreneurship

Nafisa Yeasmin — 2022-06-27

A recent OECD report recognises that the limited scope for immigrant women to integrate into mainstream Finnish society has kept them out of the labour market. In fact, a woman with migrant background faces several challenges to get access to the Finnish labour force and this has prompted them to become self-employed in small business, particularly in the northern part of Finland. However, establishing a small business and its operation induces diverse problems in this remote, mainly rural region. An inclusive entrepreneurship policy may support improving their condition in entrepreneurship. The study explores the main factors hindering the financial and socio-cultural inclusion of women immigrants in Northern Finland. A thematic analysis of cultural and economic inclusivity, based on descriptive phenomenology, helps understand and reconstruct a policy of inclusive societies in the context of rural entrepreneurship.

Future population ageing and productivity in Finland under different education and fertility scenarios

Guillaume Marois — 2022-06-27

This study projects different dependency ratios under various scenarios of future fertility and tertiary education in Finland to assess how the economic consequences of population aging depend on these trends. Applying a multidimensional demographic approach through a discrete-time microsimulation model, we project the newly introduced productivity-weighted labour force dependency ratio for Finnish scenarios until 2060 and compared it with the labour force dependency ratio and the traditional age dependency ratio.

Results show that population aging looks less daunting when considering labour force dependency ratios as compared to purely age-based ratios, yet all measures and scenarios show a deterioration of the dependency ratio. While the old age dependency ratio is projected to increase by 73 per cent, the labour force dependency ratio would increase by 32 per cent, and the productivity weighted labour force dependency ratio by 28 per cent. Provided a more rapid increase in educational attainment, the last indicator is expected to increase less, with 21 per cent until 2060. Should the stalled trend in educational achievement of the 2010s continue, there would be very modest future gains in the productivity-weighted ratio. In other words, the consequences of population ageing look less dramatic for economic productivity, were Finnish men to become as educated as Finnish women.

Of the three fertility scenarios considered, a total fertility rate of 2.0 is most advantageous and a low fertility of 1.2 least optimal for adult dependency ratios, but only after 2050. Interestingly, a combination of recovered fertility to 1.6 with a more rapid educational expansion would be better for productivity than only raising fertility to 2.0. Boosting educational levels would hence mitigate the negative effects of a shrinking labour force more than increasing fertility within reasonable bounds.

Our results suggest that implementation of the current government goals for educational expansion, combined with a not unrealistic recovery of total fertility rates to around 1.6, would both clearly alleviate the worsening dependency ratio. We conclude that although there is no quick fix to the economic effects of population ageing, these can be proactively mitigated with different and complementing policies, and taking into account multidimensional population trends.