COMPARING SIMULATED RESULTS AND ACTUAL BATTLE EVENTS FROM 1944 – A case study using Sandis software

Kirjoittajat

• Esa Lappi Information Technology Div., Finnish Defense Research Agency
• Bernt Åkesson Information Technology Div., Finnish Defense Research Agency
• Burhan Urek Turkish War College

Avainsanat:

modelling, simulation, sandis-program, Finnish-Russian War, Karelian Battle

Abstrakti

We used Sandis simulation tool to study a historical battle of Loimola in summer 1944. The first goal was to study war history and address a novel method in Finnish environment. The second goal is to publish the methods used in military analysis. Instead of the classified questions and scenarios in modern Finnish defense, the battle of Loimola 27th July 1944 was used to get a public example of the analysis method. As a third goal, this simulation is an example of the tens of historical simulation studies needed to validate simulation software. Sandis simulation tool has been used for cost-effect and tactical analysis in Finnish defense forces. With Sandis the human operator is responsible for tactical decisions during the scenario building phase. During the calculation phase the computer calculates the combat losses, platoon/squad states (operational, defeated or destroyed), ammunition consumption and also other values not used in this study. During the analysis phase, charts, tables and killer-victim scoreboards are created. Our case study focuses on the day of 27th July 1944, when the Soviets assaulted the Finnish defense lines near Lake Suovajärvi. The unit hierarchies, weapons, weapon parameters, positions and movements of the units were set as input. The results match the historical events: the Finnish losses were 30 according to the literature; simulated loss distribution (95%) was between 25 and 44, mean 35. In the simulations the attacking units are defeated and stopped as in literature. The ratio of losses caused by artillery and light infantry weapons did not conflict the values from larger area available from the literature. Thus in this case study, Sandis performed well. In future work, different historical battles could be simulated in order to get better insight of our history and key issues of war, helping to improve our future defense.