Suomen Sotatieteellisen Seuran vuosijulkaisu
Suomen Sotatieteellinen Seura - The Finnish Society of Military Science
Kranaattien ja maalialkioiden fysikaalisiin ominaisuuksiin perustuva vaikutusmalli. A Simplified Method for Computing the Lethality of Fragmenting Munitions Based on Physical Properties
This paper describes a computational model for assessing the lethality of fragmenting ammunition. The model is based on the physical properties of fragmenting ammunition and target elements and physical phenomena, including retardation of fragments due to air resistance and fragment perforation. The purpose of this paper is not to provide a detailed description of the model, but rather to provide a summary of the algorithm and the basic equations. An extended version of the model is in use in the Finnish Defence Forces.
This paper discusses what to learn from coronavirus pandemic in relation to a state of preparedness. Coronavirus pandemic was seen as a wicked problem that was hard to grasp. In the name of comprehensive security, it is argued that with the use of open source intelligence method, Finnish society would have been better prepared. Open source intelligence tools are widely used by military and police organizations. Public offices or civil organizations do not commonly use this kind of systematic approach. To take part of discussions about the forthcoming problems in the future, we need more openness. It is not possible to have public or interorganizational discussion about the needed decisions if our information is classified. For the purpose of this article, it was gathered 395 news articles. News articles were from two Finnish news agencies, Helsingin Sanomat and Yleisradio. News were gathered from 2019 week 46 to 2020 week 10. By analysing these sources it was gathered that organizations like rescue department need their own intelligence analysis to fulfil the expectations and duties society has for them.
A long-term dispute in the Balkans seemed pacified when Prespa agreement was ratified between Greece and Republic of Macedonia. Consecutively, the Greek blockade of North Macedonia’s access to NATO and EU was lifted. Foreign powers’ efforts to convince the Macedonians of the agreement’s consequences and mutual accusations of hybrid warfare were notable, yet, the problematics of the concept of Macedonia derives from the region’s complex history. The decisive phase in 2018–2019 revealed deep antagonism between the two states, and among their citizens. In Autumn 2020 the agreement was already semidead: though legally binding, the interpretations varied, and foremost, its implementation stalled halfway.
”The unmanned ground vehicles to be used in future military operations”
Abstract—Unmanned ground vehicles are fast developing because of advances in other relevant technologies like artificial intelligence and telecommunications. These machines provide new possibilities and liberate both resources and personnel from different tasks. Because of this, the time is ripe for militaries around the world to start developing this type of machines for military use. The militaries have had interest in this technology for decades. However, there are not any recent written articles which would gather and provide information about this type of machines, even though there is plenty of discussion around the development of these types of robots and the morality of their use. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to gather available information and technical data about current models under development for the militaries, as well as provide insight to these machines and their current capabilities and limitations. In addition, the goal is to provide insight on lethal autonomous weapon systems and their ethical morality. This article will also focus only on Unmanned Ground Vehicles which cannot be manned and are meant for combat and/or combat-support. Keywords— Unmanned ground vehicle, Lethal autonomous weapon systems, UGV, LAWS, robot, autonomous, track, wheeled, Uran-9, weapon.
Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun artikkeliväitöskirjat 2003–2020
Since 2003 officers and civilians has been able to defend their doctorate in military sciences from the Finnish National Defense University. This article analyses the PhD thesis from 2003 to 2020. During this period, 55 Doctors of Military Sciences have graduated. The monograph format has been used 45 times and the article-compilation format 10 times. Vast majority of dissertations are written in Finnish. This article also takes look and analyses the references of dissertations and quality of the published articles in article-compilation PhD thesis. Finally, the article presents several development suggestions that could improve the internationality, effectiveness, and quality of PhD dissertations in Finnish National Defence University
Eettisiä näkökulmia maanpuolustuksen ja yhteiskunnallisen turvallisuuden dilemmoihin ja paradokseihin
This article examines two pivotal and interlinked paradoxes in military ethics. These two paradoxes are the security paradox and the peace paradox. Security paradox refers to a negative spiral where well-intended security functions end up decreasing or jeopardizing safety and security. Peace paradox takes two forms. Firstly, it is self-contradictory to pursue peace by the means of war. On the other hand, it is also problematic to allow violence in the name of nonviolence. Different normative positions from pacifism to just war tradition and to militarism can be seen as answers to the moral dilemma between condemning violence and the need to protect innocents. These positions weigh the worth of peace differently, but they can all be seen as answers to the same question concerning a justified trade-off between necessary violence and sustainable peace. There already exists a strong just war tradition, but this analysis divulges a need to map out just peace, as well. Not all peace is equally valuable or sustainable. Conceptions of safety and security are central, when defining sustainable and just peace as something more than mere absence of violence.
The increasing role that social media plays as a source of news and information has both positive and negative effects from the viewpoint of democratic societies. As sharing information on social media is easy, it has also become easier to spread false information. False news, which can render manipulation of people’s views and thoughts remarkably easy, can be extremely challenging to detect. We approached youngsters’ trust in social media content as a potential risk factor; trust can reduce uncertainty and suspicion of information and thus predict the spread of disinformation and conspiracy theories. This may have negative effects on societal security. We aimed to examine what factors explain Finnish youngsters’ (15–19 years) trust in news and information in social media. The analysis was based on a survey (N=800) collected in 2019– 2020. Using regression analysis we found four factors that were positively associated with youngsters’ trust in news and information in social media; trust in traditional media, daily use of social media, following social media influencers, and the belief that approval ratings predict the trustworthiness of news. In addition, the belief that social media gives a distorted view of other people’s lives was negatively connected to trust in news and information. From a national security perspective, youngsters’ social media use is often harmless. However, as their identities and worldviews are still developing, they may act as a target group for information campaigns which aim to undermine the stability of society and disrupt national security. Therefore, it is crucial to understand more about youngsters’ trust in social media content and their ability to detect false information.
Yhteiskehittäminen EU-rahoitetuissa hankkeissa
The European Union (EU) promotes innovation through its research funding programmes. They offer opportunities for the co-creation of knowledge that involve diverse groups of academics, businesses and public organizations in project consortia. Projects focus in sharing insights and experiences, though participants may have conflicting interests. This study aims to gain understanding of knowledge co-creation for innovation in funded projects from the viewpoint of multi-stakeholder communication. There is a particular focus on communication with end-users. The topic is studied from four theoretical perspectives: the co-creation of knowledge, innovation networks, knowledge development processes and the resilience of complex social networks. The context are eight EU-funded projects aimed at research and innovation. According to the findings common development goals serve as the basis for partners to engage in sharing insights and experiences while developing knowledge for innovation. The perspective of the co-creation of knowledge highlights an intensive interaction between many diverse actors engaging in building relationships and trust that enable jointly working on a common problem. The perspective of innovation networks highlights that comprehensive solutions may require different roles from actors facilitated by structures and communication expertise. The perspective of knowledge development processes points to evolving input, throughput and output communication when engaging various stakeholders, especially end-users, adapting participation strategies over time. The perspective of resilience of complex social networks emphasizes agile project communication to address vulnerabilities through interdependencies. Research and innovation projects bring complex processes, which call in- teractions among diverse groups of stakeholders. This study adds to the overall body of knowledge on co-creation in innovation networks and, in particular, collaboration within EU-funded research and innovation project consortia.
Kuulustelumenetelmät ja vilpin tunnistaminen – tarve paradigman muutokseen valheenpaljastustutkimuksessa
Typically, the goal of a scientific lie detection research is to discover a method with which test subjects can be classified into two categories at group level: The liars and the truth tellers. This type of categorizing is suitable for law enforcement purposes as the questioning of a suspected criminal is aided by a lie detection method. Deceit detection and veracity assessment offer a slightly broader view compared to a simple dichotomy of a liar and a truth teller. An integral part in the process of detecting deceit is the interview or interrogation technique. Many different techniques and methods exist in this field as well. In order to form a solid foundation for the future understanding of the available interviewing or interrogation techniques and veracity assessment methods, an applicability study of the existing methods was conducted. The research problem was to identify existing techniques and methods which are based on a solid scientific foundation and assess possible method related preconditions. Two major databases, Google Scholar and Science Direct, were used to search and collect existing problem related studies and other publications. After that a Meta-Analysis was conducted to establish deeper understanding of the methods taken under scrutiny. Multi Criteria Analysis utilizing Analytical Hierarchy Process was used for the applicability assessment of the studied interviewing or interrogation techniques and veracity assessment methods. For the purposes of human intelligence the previously mentioned two fold choice is not enough. When collecting intelligence from human source, the acquired information is seldom 100 % true or false, or the person him/herself is a total liar or a truth teller. A more diagnostic approach would be to assess which parts of the statement or obtained information is likely to be true and what pieces of information are likely untrue. This leads to a shift of paradigm in the veracity assessment in support of the human intelligence collection. For practical purposes it would be beneficial to be able to identify possibly deceitful segments within otherwise truthful statement.
Venäjän hypersooniset asejärjestelmät
Hypersonic weapon systems are not a completely new idea, but along last years’ political declarations they have become quite actual. The central property of a hypersonic – i.e. moving at multiple speed of sound – aerial vehicle is its ability to move quickly in the upper atmosphere. However, the assumed objects of the impact lie in the lower atmosphere. At the final part of the trajectory the aerial vehicle is gliding and the deceleration due to drag is significant. Properties of weapon systems are classified, but the laws of aerodynamics and ballistics are widely known. High rank political and military statements have been made about the properties of Russian hypersonic weapon systems from which quite a lot may be concluded. Generic models of aerodynamic aerial vehicles used in testing of concepts of hypersonic weapon systems are unclassified. In this report both the capability of new Russian hypersonic aerial vehicles to transport payload at intercontinental and midrange distances and the speed of these aerial vehicles at the final part of the trajectory in dense atmosphere are assessed with the use of simple models of trajectory.
Tietoliikenneverkkojen ja tietoteknisten palveluiden tarjoaman sotilaallisen suorituskyvyn matemaattinen mallintaminen
In the Finnish Defence Forces, the concept of capability is defined as the ability to achieve a desired effect or an objective in particular circumstances, for example, winning a war or a battle, or destroying a target. However, partakers in the defence field have their own perceptions and differing opinions about the meaning of the concept. In the planning phase of defence capabilities, it is important to understand the concept in a similar fashion or, at least, recognise the differences and relations between different views. Traditionally, capability has been defined by quantities of armament and troops, but the definition does not comply with the definition cited above. In this article, we propose a quantitative definition based on probabilities which are consistent with the capability concept in use in the Finnish Defence Forces. In addition to probabilistic modelling of capabilities, we propose an approach to modelling requirement levels, which are set to services needed in building the capabilities. We show how these requirement levels are related to the concept of capability. Along these lines we illustrate the modelling methods with a system consisting of information technology services and computer networks in an artillery use case. As the aim of this article is to demonstrate the methodology and mathematical models, a simplified example is devised as the use case. In theory, while the use of technological systems is related to winning a war or a battle, we don’t discuss it in this article and instead refer to other studies related to this topic. The modelling principles are generic and they can be applied to other functions and operations as well.
Puolustusyhteistyö: epävarmuus mahdollisuutena
Since 2010 the significance of defence cooperation has increased in Europe and especially so in the non-aligned Finland. Versatile and intense defence cooperation seems to be what Finland wishes for. The concept, however, is somewhat ambiguous. This article analyses the scope of defence cooperation as well as its economic and security policy benefits for Finland. It also takes a look from a Finnish perspective into three recent initiatives: Framework Nations Concept of Germany, Joint Expeditionary Force of UK and the European Intervention Initiative of France. Through these initiatives, non-aligned nations may position themselves as partners of major powers in a pragmatic and low-key manner. Based on Finnish experience, material benefits and savings of defence cooperation are hard to measure, but in the authors’ view, they are minor in comparison to its security policy implications. While defence cooperation does not give security guarantees for Finland, it can be viewed as an opportunity for military aid in a conflict, thereby raising the threshold for a potential hostile actor.
Suomen Nato-jäsenyys: hyöty-kustannusnäkökulma
The defence strategy of Finland has been based on creating a credible deterrence for the pressure of its big neighbor. The means have included an appropriate foreign policy stance, maintenance of a draft army, acquiring modern defence materiel, participation in the peace partnership and in a host country agreement with Nato, involvement in an international defence cooperation with the major Western countries and most recently active cooperation with Sweden in defence matters. This article introduces a benefit-cost analysis of the potential membership of Finland in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Nato. The article claims that the option of joining Nato exists for Finland although 99 such an option is not formally introduced in terms of any contract. Access to such an option is supported by statements expressed by several Nato officers welcoming Finland as a new member. Such an invitation is rationalized here in terms of the value of Finland (and Sweden) in helping to secure the defence of the Baltic states. Nato, however, faces a number of structural weaknesses, including the requirement of unanimity in its decision-making. As a defence organization, Nato has to rely on the capacity of its member states. In addition, the risk classes of its member states differ in regards to their security. Fatally and therefore, the membership in an alliance gives rise to a free-riding incentive. Finally, the outspoken policy of the current US administration is to question the commitment of the United States in their support of Europe. This article claims that the membership option should be evaluated in terms of a benefit- cost analysis. Membership gives rise to security benefits but these come at a price. Making the Baltic Sea an inner sea of the Nato sea would result in a significant disturbance in the status quo in the area. The anticipated Russian response would involve building additional military capacity in the area. The commitment to defending the Baltic states is a costly one for a member. Moreover, Russia could take actions to limit the economic cooperation. Finally, Russia could take revenge by opening its borders allowing its foreign population to migrate over into Finland. This would result in a potentially dramatic impact on Finnish society. In conclusion, it seems optimal for Finland to recognize the existence of the membership option but to leave it unexercised as long as Russia itself does not itself disturb the status quo.
Ahvenanmaata koskevien sopimusten ja Suomen lainsäädännön tarkastelu valtionaluksen viattoman kauttakulun näkökulmasta
This article analyses the relationships between various treaties and the United Nations Conventions on the Law of the Sea (L 7/1965; Geneva Conventions on the Law of the Sea 1958; UNCLOS 1982) regarding the principle of innocent passage. The Åland Islands’ 1922 Treaty (SopS 1/1922) recognized that the territorial waters of the Åland Islands extend up to three nautical miles of the sea through the outmost geographical points of the archipelago. Article 5 of the 1922 Treaty states that the prohibition on allowing warships (including both Finnish and foreign vessels) to enter or stay in the zone of Åland Islands does not affect the freedom of ships of all internationality to pass peacefully through the three nautical miles wide territorial waters. Peaceful transit has been considered to comply with the principle of passage inoffensive among the subject matter experts like Prawitz (Prawitz 2006, 41). This principle, as a customary law, is, however, not considered to be compliant with the concept of innocent passage. The Finnish Territorial Waters Act (updated L 993/1995, based on L 463/1956) state that Finnish territorial waters are divided into internal waters and external territorial waters, i.e. the territorial sea. The Åland Islands Treaty does not recognize the concepts of external territorial waters neither of the territorial sea, which will later in this article be closely related with the concept of innocent passage. Consequently, the Åland Islands Treaty’s notion passes peacefully through territorial waters is not compliant with the notions of our contemporary territorial water jurisdiction. The 1982 UNCLOS of the Sea set the width of the territorial sea to 12 nautical miles. Finland expanded its territorial sea, including the Åland Islands region, as late as 1995 (L 981/1995). Åland then had a national territorial sea of up to 12 nautical miles and 3 nautical miles territorial waters. It was significant that the Committee on Foreign Affairs of Finland (1994) did not considered necessary, in its statement of the extension of the territorial waters to seek the consent of 154 the extension from the Åland Provincial Assembly on the basis of the fact that the Act on Autonomy of Åland was not considered to be amended. The report of the working group set up by the Ministry of Justice on the Demilitarization of Åland (2006) proposed that the territorial sea and the external border of internal territorial waters should be added to the border lines and zone limits of the Åland Islands. The working group’s proposal was not taken into consideration until seven years after the proposal was submitted (SopS 31/2013). The article concludes that the Åland Islands Treaty needs to be updated to achieve consistency between the Treaty and the contemporary Finnish jurisdiction. Clausula Rebus Sic Stantibus (Kaskimäki 2020), a principle which states that “the provisions of the agreements may be amended in the event of significant changes in terms and conditions”, could be used as a vehicle to harmonize the guidance provided on the one hand by the Åland Islands Treaty and on the other hand by the current Finnish laws in the implementation of innocent passage and its supervision.
Tekoälyn käytön eettisiä kysymyksiä sotilas­ johtamisessa, erityisesti käytettäessä tappavia autonomisia asejärjestelmiä
The ethics of warfare and military leadership must pay attention to the rapidly increasing use of artificial intelligence and machines. Who is responsible for the decisions made by a machine? Do machines make decisions? May they make them? These issues are of particular interest in the context of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). Are they autonomous or just automated? Do they violate the international humanitarian law which requires that humans must always be responsible for the use of lethal force and for the assessment that civilian casualties are proportionate to the military goals? The article analyses relevant documents, opinions, government positions, and commentaries using the methods of applied ethics. The main conceptual finding is that the definition of autonomy depends on what the one present- ing it seeks to support. Those who want to use lethal autonomous weapons systems call them by another name, say, automated instead of autonomous. They impose standards on autonomy that machines do not meet, such as moral agency. Those who wish to ban the use of lethal autonomous weapon systems define them broadly and do not require them to do much more than to be a self-standing part of the causal chain. The article’s argument is that the question of responsibility is most naturally perceived by abandoning the most controversial philosophical considerations and simply stating that an individual or a group of people is always responsible for the creation of the equipment they produce and use. This does not mean that those who press the button, or their immediate superiors, are to blame. They are doing their jobs in a system. The ones responsible can probably be found in higher military leadership, in political decision-makers who dictate their goals, and, at least in democracies, in the citizens who have chosen their political decision-makers.
Kaveria ei jätetä – eettinen toimintakyky ja suomalainen hyvinvointiyhteiskunta
This article examines the meaning and content of ethical action competence. Integrity is denoted as the most important aspect of ethical action competence. Integrity is defined as the wholeness of a person’s moral principles, values and roles. This wholeness is searched for through an understanding of different meta-ethical theories as mutually complementary moral structures instead of competing, mutually exclusive theories. The article perceives military ethics as a broader societal phenomenon. This poses a larger question of what kind of a society is best suited for cultivating moral integrity. In the article, general level of education is identified as a factor at the root of building ethical action competence. Consequently, societies with high-quality public education systems could best support ethical action competence both as a citizen and as a soldier. The Nordic welfare state is a model example of such a society portraying a general ethos of caring. Similar ethos can be seen reflected in the traditional Finnish military ethical principle, “kaveria ei jätetä”, no one left behind. In conclusion, a strong welfare state with emphasis on the valuation of education makes for (ethically) better soldiers, and moreover, when successful, the military service can cultivate more active and responsible citizens.
Saako ”hyvän” tappaa epäoikeutetussa sodassa?
The aim of this paper is to provoke deep thought about several fundamental questions, such as whether the difference between justified and unjustified wars is still relevant in times of climate crisis and eco-crisis. The paper answers in the affirmative, while introducing readers to the recent military ethical and philosophical research concerning not only “morality in war” but also “ethics and ethicality in all times”. The paper delves into the debates between various ethical schools of thought with the aim of taking part in the turn towards an emphasis on consequences (i.e. consequentialism; utilitarianism) in this shared context (the Earth). In so doing, the text familiarizes readers with the writings of “conventionalists” (e.g. Michael Walzer) and “revisionists” (e.g. Jeff McMahan), while grounding the philosophical analysis in the Just War tradition for the most part. Additionally, the study invites those who are more interested in the approaches adopted by international law studies to participate in the forthcoming multi-hermeneutic learning processes. It identifies the strategic cultural transformation that has taken place in the Finnish Defence Forces since 2009, namely the overemphasis on the legal approach and systemic neglect of philosophical studies (i.e. ethics and ethicality). To this end, the dominant worldview of the Finnish Defence Forces seems to be an emphasis on realism over constructivism, for example; an emphasis on the “next war” over human and societal security; and, consequently, an overemphasis on the “impossibility to learn” and negligence with regard to the need for deep cultural transformations. The paper synthetizes the key virtues, but also explains how the “good consequences” are pivotal for all of us who share responsibilities and obligations with regard to such matters.
Asiantuntijuus – tiedon ja eettisyyden tasapaino
Present day information society rely on expertise. However, there is no consensus about the foundational character of expertise; what is knowledge base or value base of expertise. According to Kant “Enlightenment is man’s leaving his self-caused immaturity” which direct understanding of the role of education in Western countries. The motto of Enlightenment – Dare to know! – is simple but not easy to follow because “[i]t is so comfortable to be a minor!“ Tensions within the Enlightenment entail crisis of the Enlightenment which enforce us to re-evaluate the foundations of Western thinking as, for example, Horkheimer, Adorno and Marcuse explicated. In the present paper re-evaluation is based on analysis based on the philosophy of science which allow us to specify the roles of experts. Especially we will focus our attention of epistemic and practical aims of expertise which entails changes in the focus of the epistemic and the moral responsibility of experts.
Miten merivoimat voisivat edistää luovien ratkaisujen syntymistä?
Merivoimat on ollut taas kerran merkittävän rakenne- ja henkilöstömuutoksen kohteena viimeisten vuosien aikana. Uusien suorituskykyjen rakentaminen edellyttää jatkuvaa toiminnan kehittämistä ja uuden oppimista. Uudet haasteet edellyttävät organisaatiolta uusia innovatiivisia ratkaisuja ja luovuutta. Minkä- laisen ympäristön Merivoimat organisaationa tarjoaa luovien uusien ratkaisu- jen kehittämiselle?
Henkilökohtaisten arvojen ja sotilasvalalle ja -vakuutukselle annettujen merkitysten yhteys varusmiehillä (vertaisarvioitu)
The aim of this study was examine whether Finnish conscripts value systems explain their stance towards taking the military vow. Participants were 201 conscripts from Carelian Brigade 2nd draft 2016. We measured participants’ values and their perceived meanings for the military vow. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify value profiles and one way ANOVAs and ANCOVAs was used to examine differences between groups and the role of patriotism in these differences. We identified three homogenous groups based on their profiles of scores on value dimensions (Schwatz PVQ-21): conformist performers, impulsive hedonists, and security seeking ascetics. The value groups differed in their scores on the perceived meanings of the military vow. The conformist performers gave highest ratings on all meaning –dimensions when compared to the other groups. This indicates that conscripts who value conformity and personal achievement more than other, also experience the vow more deeply regarding all measured aspects. After controlling for patriotism and will to participate in national defense, the differences were somewhat smaller and regarding the presence of one’s closest or loved ones the differences were no more detected. Also, regarding taking the vow in one’s own accord, the direction of differences was switched: now the security seeking group scored highest and differed from the hedonist group. Patriotism and will to participate in national defense therefore explains some of the variation in the perceived meaning of the military vow, partly independent from more universal values. This was particularly the case regarding the presence of one’s closest or loved ones. This intriguing effect of patriotism shows that, first, it moderates the effect of the individuals’ generic value system and, second, even alters the observed function or main effect of values systems and not only cuts the mean levels. Practical implications and future research are discussed. Key words: person-centered research, cluster analysis, value systems, national defence
Rauhanturvaajien kokemuksia kotiinpaluusta ja keinoja muutoksenhallintaan
The article elaborates peacekeepers’ experiences from homecoming and during the time since it in the framework of resilience and action competence. The research questions focus on, what kind of experiences peacekeepers have after homecoming and how their homecoming and adaptation to everyday life can be facilitated. The focus groups of the study (n = 41) consist of recently returned peacekeeping veterans, peer volunteers of the phone aid line for peacekeepers, and veterans, who have become disabled or suffer from a mental disorder due to their duties in military crisis management. Research methods of the study rely on qualitative interviews and complementary surveys. According to the results, after homecoming the veterans need capacity for change management, even though the change management processes vary individually. Further development of the services for returned peacekeeping veterans and their families would be needed, and the results are beneficial for developing these services. Understanding for the significance of change management is important for the support of peacekeepers and their families and for soldiers’ education and training. Due to the limited sizes of the samples, further research on the topic would be needed.
Vapaus, velvollisuus ja vastavuoroisuus – käsityksiä kansalaisen suhteesta valtioon ja maanpuolustukseen (vertaisarvioitu)
Liberty, Duty and Reciprocity – Perceptions on Relations between Citizens, the State and National Defence. This article examines how citizenship is constructed in relation to citizens’ civic rights and duties in society and in national defence. The data consist of written open-end replies to a survey conducted in cooperation with The Finnish Reserve Officers’ Federation. The respondents are members of the organization. We analysed the data using discourse analysis identifying discourses that construct citizenship associated with the relationship between citizens, state and national defence. The analysis gave three discourses. First, citizenship was constructed highlighting a reciprocal relationship between the state and the citizens. Second, citizenship was constructed around citizens’ active fulfilment of their duties. Third, citizenship was constructed emphasizing citizens’ individual liberty in a neoliberalist way. These discourses differed on two dimensions: responsibility between the state and citizens and the range of this responsibility. In all three discourses citizenship was constructed as a form of active citizenship. Participation in work and in national defence emerged as the most important manifestations of active citizenship in all discourses.
Talouspakotteet ja niiden onnistuminen: case Venäjä
Firstly, the article reviews the existing literature on economic sanctions. An influential study by Hufbauer (et. al 1990) based on analysis of 115 sanctions highlighted conditions for sanctions success and took a more positive view on success of sanctions than previous academic consensus. Since then, its methodology has been criticized from many angles. Economic sanctions have also transformed into targeted sanctions in order to avoid adverse humanitarian effects such as in Iraq after the Gulf War. The effects of Western sanctions on Russian economy are hard to discern from the concurrent collapse of crude oil price while the stated political objectives remain to be achieved. Russian countersanctions ban of food imports from the sanctioning countries hit Finland harder than most other EU countries, but they are helping Russia to increase agricultural production and meet self- sufficiency policy goals. Secondly, the article presents a case study of the effects of the Russian countersanctions on Finnish economy. Early on, the episode was referred to as “economic war” and by using discourse analysis this paper studies how this “war” was presented to Finnish audiences by the decision makers and media, including a special focus on farmers and milk production.
Suomalaisten käsityksiä sodan sekä kyber- ja informaatiosodankäynnin uhkasta
Citizens’ conceptions and emotions regarding the current security situation as well as future security outlooks are significant from a social viewpoint. The purpose of this article is to map Finns’ expectations to the possible changes in societal security and their trust towards authorities responsible for public security. The aim of this study is to describe the Finns’ feelings of security concerning both cyber and information operations and the threat of conventional war now and over the course of the following ten years. The data were collected by National Defense University as a part of the TAHTO2 project. The target group comprised the entire population of Finland between the ages of 15 and 79. The data were analyzed using quantitative methods; factor, variance, and cluster analysis. The empirical results suggest that respondents were concerned of cyber and information threats. However, they felt that the threat of conventional war was smaller at the time of the study. Both threats were expected to diminish in the future. The number of respondents who trust public security authorities was significantly higher than those who had a sceptic attitude. The security situation in Finland was regarded stable, possibly due to the fact that respondents trust the authorities’ ability to prevent the aforementioned threats.
Venäjän vaikuttamistoimet Ukrainassa: paikallisväestön näkökulmia ja tulkintoja
In 2014, Russia rolled into Crimea, orchestrated a swift and one-sided referendum, and annexed the Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian government as well as Western countries were blindsided by the attack and slow to provide any response. Due to the comprehensive and cross-sectoral Russian effort, it become obvious that Russia had prepared the Crimea operation for years. This paper examines some characteristics of the Russian hybrid influencing operations – the methods and tools used in Ukraine from the local perspective. The purpose of the study is to gain insights on how the local population felt this influence and further, how they reacted to these actions namely before the annexation of Crimea. The study is based on document review and empirical data collected in Ukraine during May 2019, comprising of 18 interviews, which were analysed by using content-driven analysis. Warden Five Ring Model was adapted to formulate the interview questions, and the Russian influencing operations are perceived as being part of Russian hybrid warfare towards Ukraine. The results of the study suggests that Russia had started employing non-military means, against Ukraine years before the armed aggressions started. Among others, it engaged in a propaganda war against Ukraine, meddled in Ukrainian elections, supported pro-Russian political forces in Ukraine, established political and military influence, and introduced treaties and bilateral agreements beneficial to Russia. However, the results of the study indicated that the above-mentioned activities were not perceived as hostile or abnormal, as Russia was considered as a friendly or even brother-like country. The dominance of information space until 2014 allowed Russia to target and exploit Ukrainian protest potential and create and fuel tensions between Russian and Ukrainian speaking population. The use of cyber domain was an important factor in the achievement of Russian victory in the Crimea operation. Russian influencing operations already prior to annexation of Crimea demonstrated how cyber operations are used not only to disrupt technical systems, but also how they can be used to psychologically influence audiences.
Pelotetta vai pidäkettä? Deterrenssiteorian käytäntöä pienen valtion näkökulmasta
This article reassesses the concept of deterrence that initially evolved to prevent the Cold War era superpowers from engaging into a mutually destructive nuclear war. The world has changed and certain aspects of deterrence theory have to be added to the scrapheap of history while others stand as almost timeless tenets. Deterrence has to be rethought in our contemporary world and each state willing to put it to practice will have to develop a deterrence strategy of its own that plays on the strengths of that specific state and the weaknesses of its most likely future aggressor. Non-nuclear deterrence has to be thought out adhering to different principles than expressed in traditional theories and the greater the power imbalance between the deterrer and the deterred, the more the smaller state has to employ the entire spectrum of skills of his society. Deterrence cannot rest on the principle of punishment but has to be more nuanced. When there is no balance of terror between the two states the more deterrence assumes the role or dissuading the potential enemy from attacking of creating restraints for his aggression.
Strateginen kulttuuri ja Yhdysvaltain voimapolitiikka epätavanomaisessa sodankäynnissä ja sotilaallisissa väliintuloissa
In this article the concepts of political and strategic culture are dealt with, and the main focus is in figuring out how American strategic culture has affected U.S. decision-making in warfare in Vietnam, and in the interventions to Afghanistan and Iraq. In the case of unconventional warfare in Vietnam, the cold war strategic culture of the American decision-making led to extensive commitment to the war and its escalation. The U.S. external security commitments were perceived as an interconnected global network, where weakness to honour one key commitment would jeopardize others. In the U.S.-led intervention operations to Afghanistan since 2001 and to Iraq since 2003 the American decision-making reflected the reliance in western military superiority on the battlefield, which was and is an essential component in the U.S. strategic culture. As a result of the disappointment on these overoptimistic expectations, the intervener has tried to adapt her operations model to the local circumstances.
Knowledge and deliberation are presuppositions of rational decision making. However, knowledge cannot be complete. Moreover, things do not go in the way we may think but surprises takes place. That is, uncertainty and probability are essentially included into decision process which is a process in time and space. According to Simon (1996) the presupposition of such a process is parallel connection to the external reality. So, knowledge acquisition becomes essential part of decision processes. Intuitive reason is not good enough but also deliberating and calculating reason is needed. Decision making depends not only on knowledge, but realization presuppose skills. Decision making is balance between truthful knowledge, practical experience, but also ability to recognize mistakes in order to learn from them.