YHTEENKIETOUTUMISEN TEORIA – YLLÄTYSTEN JA SATTUMAN TIETEELLINEN SELITYS

Kirjoittajat

• Tom Hanén Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu
• Aki-Mauri Huhtinen Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu

Avainsanat:

turvallisuus, kompleksisuus, organisaatio, johtaminen

Abstrakti

In this article we aim to contribute to military science by examining the phenomenon of interweaving and its significance to safety, security, leadership and warfare. Interweaving is a synonym to complexity, which is the base theory of the article. In complexity thinking, reality is continuous change which is a consequence of the interminable interweaving of different things, events, values and interactions. This change is not linear or predictable, but emerges nonlinearly as a consequence of the interweaving. Emergence can either be experienced as a surprise, or it can be categorised as a chance or coincidence, mainly because our knowledge concerning things influencing another is incomplete. Interweaved phenomenon should be analysed holistically; that is to say, it should not be approached through reductive methods. We argue that safety, security, leadership and warfare are complex phenomena, and that is why they are only partly understandable through classic scientific methods. The management of interweaving is possible by either attempting to reduce it, or by absorbing it. As an example of the latter we examine the roles of resilience and leadership in the management of interweaving in an organisation. As a conclusion, we argue that because of the phenomenon of interweaving the future of an organisation must be unknown. Future circumstances cannot be predicted, nor is it possible to tell what will be crucial when these situations occur. Instead of making detailed arrangements and meticulous preparations, we should develop resilience and leadership in organisations to anticipate the unexpected.