Analyzing the Transformation of China’s First Marriage Pattern Using Nuptiality Tables

Authors

• Yan Wei
• Quanbao Jiang
• Stuart Basten

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23979/fypr.40929

Keywords:

first marriage pattern, net nuptiality, first marriage probabilities, China

Abstract

Using data from several censuses in China, including the newly released 2010 data,
this study constructs net nuptiality tables as an analytical instrument to descriptively
analyse the shape of China’s first marriage pattern from 1982 to 2010, including the
age-specific probabilities of first marriage, the percentage of remaining single by
age, and number of years remaining single by age for both males and females. Our
analysis reveals that while age-specific probabilities of first marriage have significantly
declined for females during the past three decades, such probabilities for males have
declined much less. The percentage remaining single below age 30 has increased up
to 2010. At age 50 the proportion is 4.6 percent for males, while that for females is
just one percent. Patterns of singlehood have also changed at younger ages, with an
ever increasing period of singlehood, especially for males.