Ennakoinnin illuusio

Kirjoittajat

• Tom Hanén

Avainsanat:

epävarmuus, ennakointi, johtaminen, organisaatio, riski, sattuma, yllätys

Abstrakti

Uncertainty is an important concept on many branches of science, and it is also vital when it comes to problematic of the art of war. Uncertainty generally means the inability to predict the future and it is, therefore, in the core of decision-making process. In this paper uncertainty is revised holistically as a historical and current phenomenon, and the importance of uncertainty in management and leadership is also examined. Already the ancient Greeks created the concept of probability in between uncertainty and certainty, and this made the estimations of certainty possible. Later, as the statistics developed, probability-based thinking was transformed into risk-analytical approach. The statistics-based approach spread within physics as well as to social sciences in the modern era. However, statistical techniques are often problematic in social sciences, because the complexity of social systems makes the “mechanistic” causal analysis impossible. Another problem is the fact that the actions of human beings are very uncertain. Prediction based on statistics does not reveal any details of occurrence which could be essential to management and leadership. Often a managerial occasion is also a unique situation. Nowadays it is common knowledge that especially the effects of the functions of the complex systems are impossible to predict. Complex systems contain many interacting parts and a lot of information energy. This interaction produces nonlinear effects that are not predictable. In research, organizations are seen as complex adaptive systems. The organization theory and paradigms of management and leadership have not focused on complexity approach so far. Mainstream research has instead stressed the predictability, order, stability and rationality in organizations. This article argues that the mainstream approach can be dangerous, because it does not correspond to complexities of reality, and eventually the ability to predict becomes an illusion guiding the organizations. The full text is in Finnish. Artikkeli on suomenkielinen.