Time series analysis of three centuries of childbearing and fertility process in Finland
Abstract
A new time series data set of childbearing and fertility-inhibiting indices for Finland since 1722 is constructed. Calculation of these macro-level indices is accomplished by the application of new demographic and statistical methodologies, which require only knowledge of age-specific fertility rates, available for Finland since 1776, and the Box-Jenkins time series forecasting technique. The results depict that Finland passed through various childbearing patterns. These patterns are characterized by increasing ages at first and last birth in the eighteenth century to stabilization in the following century at high levels. Since the beginning of the twentieth century, ages at last birth declined dramatically while ages at first birth first increased, then declined in the 1940s and stayed at that low level later on. Increases in both indices have been witnessed since the mid-1970s.
