Long-term fertility development in Baltoscandia
Keywords:
fertility trends, Finland, Estonia. Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden. Baltic Sea AreaAbstract
The article is a short overview of some principal fertility trends in Estonia. Finland. Latvia, Lithuania, and Sweden. Those countries, from the historical perspective, have been characterized by relatively early start of demographic transition. Also, in period of fertility transition, these countries have demonstrated rather similar developments and formed one of the most homogenous subregions in Europe in this respect. However, post-transitional fertility development has been rather desynchronized between the named countries: not only the Baltic-Scandinavian differences but also the difference between Estonia-Latvia and Lithuania as well as between Sweden and Finland has become important. The noticeable part of this heterogeneity is explained by the relatively stable cohort fertility in Estonia and Latvia while in Finland. Lithuania, and Sweden the birth cohorts have had rather divergent outcomes of their fertility careers. Currently the Baltic countries are characterized by sharp fertility decrease, accompanied by the deep structural transformation of the fertility pattern. The intense aging of fertility, particularly because of postponement of the first child, is in contrast to much smoother development of the same kind in Finland and Sweden.
