A statistical look at Modeen's forecast of the population of Finland in 1934

Authors

• Juha M. Alho

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23979/fypr.44949

Keywords:

Box-Jenkins, forecast error, historical demography, judgemental methods, time series analysis

Abstract

Gunnar Modeen made the first cohort-component forecast for Finland in 1934. This was a time when demographic transition was just over, but that fact could not have been known at the time. Would it have made any difference if Modeen had had the tools of modern time-series analysis available? We find that the essential question of how to deal with changing trends would have still been difficult. However; the modern tools would have given the forecast user a realistic indicator of the uncertainty of the forecast being made. This suggests that in developing countries that are undergoing transition now, more effort should he paid to the analysis of uncertainty of forecasting.