Rising Educational Levels Contribute to Compression of Morbidity. A Multi-State Life Table Analysis of the Netherlands 1995-2015

Authors

• E. Kunst Anton
• M. A. Joung Inez
• J. Nusselder Wilma
• W. N. Looman Caspar
• P. Mackenbach Johan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23979/fypr.44970

Keywords:

health expectancy, mortality, disability, socioeconomic factors, Netherlands, projection, multi-state life table

Abstract

Objective: This paper assesses whether the future rise in educational levels of the
elderly may not only increase life expectancy (LE) but also at the same time
contribute to a reduction in life expectancy with disability (LED).
Methods: For each educational level, LE and LED were estimated from multi-state
life tables with a disabled and non-disabled state. Basic transition rates were
estimated from regression analysis of data of a Dutch longitudinal study. The results
per educational level were aggregated to the total population for the years 1995,
2005 and 2015.
Results: In 1995, men in the highest educational level had a 0.9 years longer
LE and a 5.4 years shorter LED than men in the lowest level. Differences among
women were larger (2.0 and 8.3 years). Due to rising educational levels between
1995 and 2015, LE for the total male population would increase by 0.2 years while
LED would decrease by 0.5 years. A larger effect was observed for women
(0.2 and 1.5 years).
Conclusion: Rising educational levels of the elderly are likely to contribute to a
compression of morbidity over the next decades, especially among women.