Divorce Risk Factors Across Finnish Marriage cohorts, 1954-1989

Authors

• Juho Härkönen

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23979/fypr.45019

Keywords:

divorce, education, cohabitation, parity, change, event-history models

Abstract

This paper examines whether there has been a change in the effects of three divorce risk
factors, female educational attainment, cohabitation, and parity. Several theoretical
reasons suggest such a change, but the existing evidence gives mixed results. First
marriages of Finnish women married between 1954 and 1989 are analysed using data
from the Fertility and Family Surveys (FFS), collected in 1989 and 1990. The results
from the discrete-time event history models show that the effect of having children
on marital stability has changed: the impact of having two children has become less
evident, while the effect of having three children or more has increased. These trends
hold after controlling for young children and premarital children. Some explanations
for this shift are discussed.