HIV and Fertility Decline in North-Central Namibia 1980-2004
AbstractThe aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility and the impact of HIV
on this development in North-Central Namibia from 1980 to 2004. The main sources
of data consisted of parish registers for eight Evangelical Lutheran congregations,
the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys and the 1991 and 2001
population censuses. Developments in fertility were studied using the total fertility
rate (TFR), age-speci? c fertility rates (ASFR), and standardized fertility distributions.
The results show that fertility declined from 5.0 in 1980-89 to 4.1 in 1990-99 and to
3.5 in 2000-04. Among women in the 25-29 age group and older, fertility declined,
while fertility among adolescents increased. Both age at ? rst marriage and premarital
fertility increased during the study period. During the 1990s, HIV infection explained
25-29% of the decline in total fertility. If mortality continues to increase as a result
of the HIV epidemic while fertility continues to decline, both because of HIV infection
and for other societal reasons, the implications for future population growth rates and
the countrys demographic structure are pronounced.