Urban and Peri-urban Population Dynamics in Case Study Cities within Europe

Authors

• Emma Terämä

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23979/fypr.45048

Keywords:

aging, energy crisis, IPCC, low fertility, urbanization

Abstract

This article deals with population dynamics in chosen European locations with different
age structures, future expected growth developments and urbanization prospects.
The case study approach was chosen in order to depict spatially relevant details and
characteristics of a small region with an urban core. The populations are subjected to
a set of four possible futures, which are called scenarios. The demographics of each
are different, and these variations are shown by means of population projections.
The results show that in Koper, Slovenia and the Warsaw region, Poland the cities
undergo dynamics that is very sensitive to the age structure of the population, future
fertility, mortality and international migration prospects. The degree of urbanization
further depends on local movement of population, which can be muffled by daily
work-migration. Data availability on the local level is proven to be a challenge for
detailed demographic studies, as is future uncertainty with respect to migration, be
it local or international. Despite the uncertainties in the future levels of migration,
it can be seen that age-structure and current low fertility levels have a long-standing
impact on the demography of a region.