Exploring the Future Population and Educational Dynamics in the Arctic: 2015 to 2050

Authors

• Anastasia Emelyanova University of Oulu

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23979/fypr.70159

Keywords:

arctic region [http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p12434], population forecasts [http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p20081], projection [http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p8992]

Abstract

The Arctic is a geographical space surrounding the North Pole. It encompasses dozens of sub-national entities north of eight Arctic countries: Russia, Canada, Denmark, the United States, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. It is 20 million square kilometers land coverage settled with only 10 million people (2015). In the desire to learn more about the Arctic overall profile in population change, we aimed at producing cross-regional dataset covering all parts of the Arctic, and using it as a baseline for the cohort- component population projection. In this way, we model the future changes in the age, sex, and educational structure of sub-national populations, the latter reflecting the regional human capital. The projections are based on three alternative scenarios, taking into account regional characteristics (“Medium development”, “Arctic Boost”, and “Arctic Dip”). The results might be informative for those interested in the future dynamics of the Arctic population from 2015 forward to 2050.