Äly ja kansojen varallisuus : mitä kertoimet kertovat?

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Abstrakti

Several recent publications have claimed that the IQ-figures presented by Lynn and Vanhanen (2006) are a good indicator of national human capital in regression models predicting economic growth. Unfortunately, these results are based on analyses of selective samples. In the article it is demonstrated that when all countries are included the explanatory power of IQ is minimal. This does not, however, refute the hypothesis presented by Lynn and Vanhanen. The hypothesis is a statement about the total causal effect of IQ, and a SEM-model is needed to estimate that effect. It turns out that, even if IQ does not have a non-zero direct effect on economic growth, it may have considerable indirect effects which sum up to a substantial total effect. An important conclu­sion from this causal model is drawn. The fact that the effect of IQ is mediated through variables like literacy implies that the fatalist conclusion made by Lynn and Vanhanen is not justified.