Yield predictions of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in Norway under future climate scenarios

Authors

• Kristoffer H. Hellton Norwegian Computing Center, P.O. Box 114 Blindern, 0314 Oslo, Norway
• Helga Amdahl Graminor AS, Bjørke Gård, Hommelstadvegen 60, 2322 Ridabu, Norway
• Thordis Thorarinsdottir Norwegian Computing Center, P.O. Box 114 Blindern, 0314 Oslo, Norway
• Muath Alsheikh Graminor AS, Bjørke Gård, Hommelstadvegen 60, 2322 Ridabu, Norway
• Trygve Aamlid Urban greening and vegetation ecology, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, P.O. Box 115, 1431 Ås, Norway
• Marit Jørgensen Grassland and Livestock, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, P.O. Box 115, 1431 Ås, Norway
• Sigiridur Dalmannsdottir Grassland and Livestock, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, P.O. Box 115, 1431 Ås, Norway
• Odd Arne Rognli Faculty of Biosciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, 1432 Ås, Norway

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.127935

Abstract

The perennial forage grass timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is the most important forage crop in Norway. Future changes
in the climate will affect growing conditions and hence the yield output. We used data from the Norwegian Value for Cultivation and Use testing to find a statistical prediction model for total dry matter yield (DMY) based on agro-climatic variables. The statistical model selection found that the predictors with the highest predictive power were growing degree days (GDD) in July and the number of days with rain (>1mm) in June–July. These predictors together explained 43% of the variability in total DMY. Further, the prediction model was combined with a range of climate ensembles (RCP4.5) to project DMY of timothy for the decades 2050–2059 and 2090–2099 at 8 locations in Norway. Our projections forecast that DMY of today’s timothy varieties may decrease substantially in South-Eastern Norway, but increase in Northern Norway, by the middle of the century, due to increased temperatures and changing precipitation patterns.