Scenarios for future agriculture in Finland: a Delphi study among agri-food sector stakeholders

Authors

• P. RIKKONEN

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2137/145960605775013227

Abstract

This article presents alternative scenarios for future agriculture in Finland up to 2025. These scenarios are the results of a large Delphi study carried out among Finnish agri-food sector stakeholders. The Delphi panel members gave their future view on desirable and probable futures. From these two dimensions, three scenarios were elaborated through the future images the subjective future path and the importance analysis. The scenarios represent a technology optimistic day-dream agriculture, a probable future as industrialised agriculture and an undesirable future path as drifting agriculture. Two mini-scenarios are also presented. They are based on a discontinuity event as an unexpected impact of climate change and an analogy event as an ecological breakdown due to the expansive animal disease epidemics. In both mini-scenarios, the directions of storylines are dramatically changed. The scenarios support strategic planning introducing not only one forecast but alternative outcomes as a basis for future strategy and decisions. In this study the scenarios were constructed to address the opportunities as a desired vision and also the threats as to an undesirable future in the agricultural sector. These results bring to the table a Finnish agri-food expert community view of the future directions of relevant key issues in the agricultural policy agenda.;