An integrated simulation model to evaluate national measures for the abatement of agricultural nutrients in the Baltic Sea

Authors

• Kari Hyytiäinen MTT Economic Research, Luutnantintie 13, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland
• Heini Ahtiainen MTT Economic Research, Luutnantintie 13, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland
• Jaakko Heikkilä MTT Economic Research, Luutnantintie 13, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland
• Janne Helin MTT Economic Research, Luutnantintie 13, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland
• Anni Huhtala MTT Economic Research, Luutnantintie 13, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland
• Antti Iho MTT Economic Research, Luutnantintie 13, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland
• Kauko Koikkalainen MTT Economic Research, Luutnantintie 13, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland
• Antti Miettinen MTT Economic Research, Luutnantintie 13, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland
• Eija Pouta MTT Economic Research, Luutnantintie 13, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland
• Janne Vesterinen MTT Economic Research, Luutnantintie 13, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.5951

Keywords:

cost-benefit analysis, nutrient abatement, Monte Carlo simulation, recreation, valuation

Abstract

This study introduces a prototype model for evaluating measures to abate agricultural nutrients in the Baltic Sea from a Finnish national perspective. The stochastic simulation model integrates nutrient dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus in the sea basins adjoining the Finnish coast, nutrient loads from land and other sources, benefits from nutrient abatement (in the form of recreation and other ecosystem services) and the costs of agricultural abatement activities. The aim of the study is to present the overall structure of the model and to demonstrate its potential using preliminary parameters. The model is made flexible for further improvements in all of its ecological and economic components. The results of a sensitivity analysis suggest that investments in reducing the nutrient load from arable land in Finland would become profitable only if the neighboring countries in the northern Baltic committed themselves to similar reductions. Environmental investments for improving water quality yield the highest returns for the Bothnian Bay and the Gulf of Finland, with smaller returns for the Bothnian Sea. Somewhat surprisingly, in the Bothnian Bay the abatement activities become profitable from the national viewpoint, because the riverine loads from Finland represent a high proportion of the total nutrient loads. In the Gulf of Finland, this proportion is low, but the size of the coastal population benefiting from improved water quality is high.;