Suomen maatalouden rakennemuutos: Tutkimus Markovin ketjujen käyttömahdollisuuksista rakennekehityksen ennustamisessa ja teoreettinen analyysi rakennemuutokseen vaikuttaneista tekijöistä

Authors

• Paavo Mäkinen Maatilahallitus, P.l. 250, 00171 Helsinki

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.72926

Abstract

The study describes the main developments of agricultural structure in Finland, particularly since 1960. It discusses the feasibility of Markov Chains in modelling the structural change for forecasting purposes. Using macro and micro data the transition probabilities are estimated for the farms moving from one field area size class to another. The probabilities for transitions between herd size classes are also estimated for the dairy, pork and poultry farms using micro data only. Applying the obtained transition probabilities forecasts are made on the number of farms and their size structure at the turn of the century. The regional aspect is an integral part of the study. For this purpose the country is divided into four regions. The transition probabilities, estimated using data from different time periods, yielded divergent forecasts. Therefore, an attempt is made to examine qualitatively, employing basic microeconomic theory, certain causal factors which could have influenced the agricultural structure and its change in Finland and within its regions. A particular emphasis is given to various agricultural policy measures, including those under income and production policies.