Hallituksen toimintaan ja puoluejohdon taitavuuteen kohdistuva arviointi puoluekannatuksen selittäjänä

Kirjoittajat

• Heikki Paloheimo

Abstrakti

The paper analyses electoral behaviour in Finland. Three questions are analysed: First, have party identification and party loyalty been declining? Second, are voters today more likely than in the past to make up their minds in general elections based on their evaluation of government performance? Third, are voters today more likely to cast their votes based on their evaluation of party leaders? These questions are analysed with logistic regression analyses using opinion polls taken between 1974 and 1999. In the 1990s, party loyalty was weaker than in previous decades. There is evidence that in the 1990s, voters tended more than previously to make up their minds based on their evaluation of government performance and party leadership. There are, however, cross-party differences. Support for the Conservatives was already dependent on evaluation of the government and party leadership in the 1970s. Evaluation of government performance had no effect on support for the Center party before the 1990s. Evaluation of government performance has had no effect on support for the Green party. To sum up, voters’ evaluations of government performance and party leadership seem to have affected voting decisions more in the 1990s than in earlier decades. However, we do not know to what extent this is due to a new kind of electoral behaviour and to what extent it is due to the Finnish economic crisis of the 1990s.