Sotilasvallankaappaukset kehitysmaissa

Kirjoittajat

• Tatu Vanhanen

Abstrakti

The reasons of military coups are investigated in this article. It is assumed that the best explanation for the limitation of military coups to the Third World can be found in the social circumstances which have made most of those countries susceptible to all types of authoritarian rule. The results of empirical analysis covering 119 states support this interpretation. Another problem is why the military have taken power in some of those countries but not in all of them. It was assumed that the military’s decision to make a coup or to remain loyal to the civilian government depends on certain political factors. Circumstances are assumed to be most favourable for military coups when the level of defense spending is high, the military has strong autonomy, its identification with the civilian leadership is weak, and the legitimacy of the government is weak. Empirical evidence from 87 Third World countries shows that a low level of defense spending has prevented military coups, although it has not made them impossible. Six countries on the Indian subcontinent were used as examples to test the hypothesis on the combined effect of the four explanatory factors. The results strongly support the hypothesis in this sample.