Miten äänestäjät valitsevat puolueen?

Kirjoittajat

• Heikki Paloheimo

Abstrakti

This paper focuses on the question how voters make up their mind while making choices between different political parties in the Finnish general elections. Theories on partisanship, Downsian spatial models, theories on issue voting, theories on leadership effect and theories on directional or status quo voting are tested. It is argued that none of these theories is superior over the other theories. They are complementary rather than competing. It is shown that most partisan voters also vote for the spatially most proximate party in the left- right scale. The role of issue voting has risen only marginally during the last 25 years. In the same way, the share of volatile voters in the Finnish electorate has also risen only marginally during the last 25 years. There is no rising trend in the leadership effect on voting behaviour. In the Finnish multi-party system, every now and then some party leaders have a clearly positive effect on the support of their parties. Status quo voting, taking stance in favour of or against the parties in office, has clearly become more important during the last two decades. Voters are more prone to punish parties in office than to reward them. Therefore, during the last twenty years the biggest party in opposition has always been one of the winners of the general election.