Neuvostoliitto ja puolueettomuus Länsi-Euroopassa

Författare

• Harto Hakovirta

Abstract

The article contains an analysis of the Soviet policies in regard to different actual and potential forms of neutrality in postwar Western Europe. For analytical purposes, neutrality is defined in an unconventionally broad manner as a general alternative to alliance and alliance policies. The analysis, carried out on the basis of major historical events and trends, leads to the following conclusions: (a) the Soviet posture vis å vis Western European neutral states and their policies has developed from a certain reservedness and, mostly unsuccessful, influence attempts towards a more realistic and acquiescent line seeking to find a balance between operative aims and factual leverage, (b) the Soviet behavior in regard to neutralization in Western Europe has developed from basecally unrealistic grand designs to a more realistic gradualist line, (c) the Soviet posture in regard to potential neutral blocs and new scattered neutral tendencies in this region has been characterized mainly by avoidance of stands and active undertakings. The most promising way to make the Soviet policies concerned understandable seems to be to combine the conceptions of the Soviet Union as a rational bloc actor and as a world power interested primarily in stability and the prevention of war. The currently popular hypothesis that the Soviet Union acts on a design for incrementally neutralizing the whole of Western Europe is found rather meaningless. Even if there is such a design in reserve or in an experimental stage, its degree of chrystallization and internal integration is bound to be quite low.