Simulation model for the structure of Finnish agriculture

Authors

• Seppo Hassinen Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Rukkila, 00001 Helsinki 100, Finland
• Lauri Kettunen Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Rukkila, 00001 Helsinki 100, Finland

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.72046

Abstract

The simulation model for the structure of agriculture makes up one part of the Finnish food model. The structure of agriculture is described in the model by the agricultural population as well as by the number, the average size and distribution of all the farms, dairy farms, pig farms, poultry farms and non-animal farms. The agricultural population is calculated by forecasting its share from the total population as a function of GDP. The number of farms is derived from the agricultural population by assuming that the size of a farm family is constant. The average size of the farm is derived by dividing the total acreage by the number of farms. The distribution of farms is forecasted by applying a logarithmic normal distribution function. The starting points for the structure of animal production are the consumption forecasts and self-sufficiency targets. The development of the average yield per animal is forecasted by applying a trend line. Also the average size of animal farms is forecasted by a trend. The number of animal farms is obtained simply by dividing the number of animals by the average farm size.