Fertilizer effect and a model for forecasting yields

Authors

• Lauri Kettunen Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Rukkila, 00001 Helsinki 100
• Tuomo Heikkilä Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Rukkila, 00001 Helsinki 100
• Antti Jaakkola Agricultural Research Centre, Institute of Agricultural Chemistry and Physics, 31600 Jokioinen

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.72054

Abstract

A simulation model for forecasting the development of crop yields is built in the article. A parabolic function is applied to represent the fertilizer effect on yields. The biological-technological development is taken into account by including the time factor into the yield function. The parameters of the functions are estimated from the data obtained from field experiments. The economic optimum determines the use of fertilizers which, in turn, is needed to calculate final forecasts of yields for each year. The user of the model may freely select the growth rate of the fertilizer price. The rise in production costs is compensated to the farmers by raising producer prices accordingly.